Adios, Cheap Gas.



Being in the energy field, I like to keep a close eye on developments in the industry and particularly the energy policy of the United States. So, from time to time you'll see some energy discussion here. This is the first installment.

If you haven't heard about "Peak Oil" in the news yet, you will soon. Over the past few months, it has popped up in more and more places, from CNN to CSI (the #1 show on TV).

So, what is peak oil and why should you care?

The answer to the first question is pretty easy.. actually, any fifth grader should be familiar with the concept. Hydrocarbon fuels, in this case oil, are "non-renewable" resources, as opposed to "renewable resources" such as wind and solar power. (Of course "renewable resource" is somewhat of a misnomer itself, because wind and solar power are both generated by the sun, which will burn out in 5 billion years or so.)

Technicalities aside, back to the oil. What most of us who went to primary school within the last two decades learned is that oil is a non-renewable resource. What our teachers did not mention is exactly when oil will run out and how it will impact our society. This is the aim of the peak oil theory.

In brief, the peak oil theory says that world oil production follows a bell curve. Over the last several decades, we have been on the upslope of the curve, where oil was easy to find and extract in abundant quantities. At some point, the "easy" oil discoveries run out and existing wells begin to decline in production. From that point, worldwide oil production declines and prices will rise due to tightening supply and the difficulty of extracting the oil that is left in the ground. With all this focus on supply, don't forget about demand for oil, which is skyrocketing, especially in the Asian continent.

So what is the end result of declining supplies of oil in the face of surging demand? Opinions vary. The most pessimistic theorists predict the end of society as we know it, with the few survivors living in a "Mad Max" world of roving barbarians. On the other hand, there are those who think that the world will be able to quickly shift to other sources of energy.

Personally, I'm on the optimistic side and favor a "Market Solution" resolution to the problem. That is, as oil gets more expensive there will be greater investment in alternative energy sources, and the alternative sources will be able to prevent a global catastrophe.

But, why wait for the end of oil? Why don't we get a serious head start on alternative energy now?

A few months ago I heard a talk by Gene Krantz, the mission controller for Apollo 13 (he is the father of one of the members of my triathlon club.) His speech was basically a summary of the Apollo 13 mission, a motivational speech about what can be achieved when people work as a team to achieve a single goal. Following his talk, someone asked him what should be the main mission of Nasa now, perhaps a manned mission to Mars or a moon base. His answer was somewhat surprising - he said the nation should now focus on finding a source of renewable energy, and that would enable more ambitious missions in space. Now there's a good idea!

In 1961 John F Kennedy challenged the nation to put a man on the moon before the end of the decade. It only took 8 years. It is time for this country and the world to take on a similarly ambitious challenge; to develop and implement a renewable source of energy in the next 10-15 years. Back in 2003 the president earmarked 1.3 billion to develop hydrogen as a fuel for cars, but this is not nearly enough. For one thing, hydrogen is not an energy source in itself, it is a method of energy transmission. There needs to be aggressive research in safer nuclear reactor facilities (including fusion), and other potential sources.

Developing domestic oil by drilling in the ANWR and other places is probably necessary to buy us a little more time, but ultimately it will not be the solution.

So, write your representatives and let them know that since you don't want to live in the world of Mad Max, they better make energy a high priority.